Group stage
Knockout bracket
Result
Aggregated stage-reach probabilities across n deterministic tournaments
(seeds 1…n). Click a column to sort. Probabilities are driven purely by Elo.
The engine was frozen before kickoff (Elo snapshot 30 May 2026) and never saw a result.
Here it is graded against the actual tournament (source:
openfootball/worldcup.json). The model has no hand-tuning — strength is Elo only.
Plain words first: every number is explained where it appears, and the exact formulas sit
one click away in the stats corner boxes.